{"id":1609,"date":"2026-07-27T14:37:42","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T18:37:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cartagene.qc.ca\/projet\/evaluation-of-predictive-models-on-the-occurrence-of-breast-cancer-at-5-years\/"},"modified":"2026-07-31T14:56:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T18:56:06","slug":"evaluation-of-predictive-models-on-the-occurrence-of-breast-cancer-at-5-years","status":"publish","type":"projet","link":"https:\/\/cartagene.qc.ca\/en\/projet\/evaluation-of-predictive-models-on-the-occurrence-of-breast-cancer-at-5-years\/","title":{"rendered":"Evaluation of predictive models on the occurrence of breast cancer at 5 years"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"htb htb-hero-simple htb-hero-simple--js   default-margin-top  default-margin-bottom  bg-color color-none  htb-uid-1 \" >\n\t<div class=\"container-fluid\">\n\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12 \">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"content-box \">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"henri-breadcrumb-box\">\n\t\t\t<nav aria-label=\"breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\t<ol class=\"breadcrumb\" itemscope itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/BreadcrumbList\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"breadcrumb-item \" itemprop=\"itemListElement\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ListItem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/cartagene.qc.ca\/en\/\">Home<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"breadcrumb-item\" itemprop=\"itemListElement\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ListItem\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"\/en\/projects\">Projects<\/a><\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<li class=\"breadcrumb-item active\" aria-current=\"page\" itemprop=\"itemListElement\" itemtype=\"http:\/\/schema.org\/ListItem\">Evaluation of predictive models on the occurrence of breast cancer at 5 years<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ol>\n\t\t\t<\/nav>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h1 >Evaluation of predictive models on the occurrence of breast cancer at 5 years<\/h1>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"htb htb-fiche_technique   default-margin-top  default-margin-bottom  bg-color color-none  htb-uid-2 \" >\n\n\t\n\t\t\t<div class=\"container-xxl\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"row\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"col-12\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-grille\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-grille__rangee\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-carte bg-color color-bleu-blanc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__label\">Status<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__valeur\">Completed<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-carte bg-color color-bleu-blanc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__label\">Start date<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__valeur\">2019<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-carte bg-color color-bleu-blanc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__label\">Location<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__valeur\">Quebec<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-grille__rangee\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-carte bg-color color-bleu-blanc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__label\">Researcher<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__valeur\">Broet, Philippe<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-carte bg-color color-bleu-blanc\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__label\">Associated institution<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"ft-carte__valeur\">Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Sainte-Justine<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__row row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__label-col col-12 col-lg-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Summary<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__body-col col-12 col-lg-8\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__texte\"><p>This project aimed to evaluate and improve cancer risk prediction models using CARTaGENE data. The initial objective was to assess the performance of the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (BCRAT), a widely used clinical model developed in the United States, and to determine whether adding polygenic risk scores derived from genetic data could improve the prediction of breast cancer occurrence within five years among women in Quebec. By combining health, lifestyle, family history, and genetic information available in CARTaGENE, the project evaluated how well these tools identify individuals at increased risk of developing cancer. The research also led to the development of new statistical methods for assessing and comparing risk prediction models and genetic risk scores. Subsequent analyses extended this work to other cancers, including lung cancer, where researchers evaluated the performance of risk-based screening approaches and identified novel genetic variants associated with lung cancer susceptibility. Overall, the project contributed to improving the evaluation, calibration, and application of personalized cancer risk prediction tools in the Quebec population and supported the development of more targeted prevention and screening strategies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__row row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__label-col col-12 col-lg-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Themes<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__body-col col-12 col-lg-8\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__texte\"><ul>\n<li>Cancer<\/li>\n<li>Genetics and genomics<\/li>\n<li>Methodology and biostatistics<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__row row\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__label-col col-12 col-lg-4\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Data types<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__body-col col-12 col-lg-8\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"ft-contenu__texte\"><ul>\n<li>Genetic data<\/li>\n<li>Linked data<\/li>\n<li>Questionnaire data<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\n<\/div>\n\n\n<div class=\"htb htb-liste-posts-simple   default-margin-top  default-margin-bottom  bg-color color-none  htb-uid-3 \" >\n\t<div class=\"container-xxl\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"htb-liste-posts-simple-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"header-intro\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h2 >Related resources<\/h2>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"row posts-container\">\n\t\t\t\t<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2024\/06\/14\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>A statistical testing strategy accounting for random and non-random (skewed) X-chromosome inactivation identifies lung cancer susceptibility loci among smokers<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/38880085\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"A statistical testing strategy accounting for random and non-random (skewed) X-chromosome inactivation identifies lung cancer susceptibility loci among smokers\">A statistical testing strategy accounting for random and non-random (skewed) X-chromosome inactivation identifies lung cancer susceptibility loci among smokers<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2023\/04\/11\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Evaluation of the accuracy of the PLCOm2012 6-year lung cancer risk prediction model among smokers in the CARTaGENE population-based cohort<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/37041013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Evaluation of the accuracy of the PLCOm2012 6-year lung cancer risk prediction model among smokers in the CARTaGENE population-based cohort\">Evaluation of the accuracy of the PLCOm2012 6-year lung cancer risk prediction model among smokers in the CARTaGENE population-based cohort<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2022\/05\/05\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Analyzing cohort studies with interval-censored data: A new model-based linear rank-type test<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/35511124\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Analyzing cohort studies with interval-censored data: A new model-based linear rank-type test\">Analyzing cohort studies with interval-censored data: A new model-based linear rank-type test<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2021\/12\/27\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Five-year absolute risk estimates of colorectal cancer based on CCRAT model and polygenic risk scores: A validation study using the Quebec population-based cohort CARTaGENE<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/35127357\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Five-year absolute risk estimates of colorectal cancer based on CCRAT model and polygenic risk scores: A validation study using the Quebec population-based cohort CARTaGENE\">Five-year absolute risk estimates of colorectal cancer based on CCRAT model and polygenic risk scores: A validation study using the Quebec population-based cohort CARTaGENE<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2021\/04\/12\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Validation of breast cancer risk assessment tools on a French-Canadian population-based cohort<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/33846154\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Validation of breast cancer risk assessment tools on a French-Canadian population-based cohort\">Validation of breast cancer risk assessment tools on a French-Canadian population-based cohort<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<article class=\"htb-post-list-item post-type-post\">\n\t<div class=\"contenu-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"post-top-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"eyebrow-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"surtitre\">Publications<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"year-txt\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t2020\/04\/24\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"title-box\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h3>Quantifying the Predictive Accuracy of a Polygenic Risk Score for Predicting Incident Cancer Cases : Application to the CARTaGENE Cohort<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<div class=\"post-footer-box\">\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"see-more-txt\">View publication<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<span class=\"bt-arrow bt-arrow--externe\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<a class=\"stretched-link\" href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/32391062\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" aria-label=\"Quantifying the Predictive Accuracy of a Polygenic Risk Score for Predicting Incident Cancer Cases : Application to the CARTaGENE Cohort\">Quantifying the Predictive Accuracy of a Polygenic Risk Score for Predicting Incident Cancer Cases : Application to the CARTaGENE Cohort<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/article>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","projet-categorie":[],"projet-status":[50],"projet-thematique":[54,51,57],"projet-type-donnees":[62,59,58],"projet-localisation":[64],"class_list":["post-1609","projet","type-projet","status-publish","hentry","projet-status-completed","projet-thematique-cancer","projet-thematique-genetics-and-genomics","projet-thematique-methodology-and-biostatistics","projet-type-donnees-genetic-data","projet-type-donnees-linked-data","projet-type-donnees-questionnaire-data","projet-localisation-quebec-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Evaluation of predictive models on the occurrence of breast cancer at 5 years | CARTaGENE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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